The Curious Case of This Year's Nominations

Another year, another 11 months of broken promises.  Since I last wrote, WAY back in February 2008 (back when our country was still (mis)lead by the evil Bush regime), I have not posted a single item to this blog.  Not one.  I have excuses….new (old) job – I'm back at Dickstein, but this time in NY; new puppy (check out the multiple pics of Radar on my Facebook page), um….yeah – that's about it.  So rather than make a promise that this time, for reals, I am going to be good about maintaining the page as I see films, I'm gonna go with the good old "I'll do my best."
 
Seriously though – one of the major problems I have is finding movies to see.  From February – May there's almost nothing, Summer is usually full of blockbusters that I'm generally not interested in, and then by the time fall/winter rolls around, James and I are too busy doing double features to see the films that are actually worth our $13 for me to come home and write about them!
 
With that fantastic whine, let's get to the reason you're actually here….this year's nominees for Academy Award greatness (or is it infamy?).  As usual, I'm only going to recap the "majors," though I may throw in some extra commentary about other nominees that I'm psyched about.  In addition, I will give my "day of nominations" predictions, which are often hilariously wrong…needless to say, don't use these to complete your Oscar pools.  I begin this post immediately after the 8:37am EST announcements…the next two weeks will be full of campaigning that may just lead to an upset winner, on par with last year's surprise Best Actress Winner (Marion Cotillard) or the previous year's Best Supporting Actor Winner (Alan Arkin).
 
I think you'll see that there weren't too many surprises here.  "Benjamin Button" lead with 13 nominations, followed by "Slumdog Millionaire" with 10 and 8 each for "Dark Knight" and "Milk."  Ok – so maybe one or two films got seriously snubbed.  With that said, And the Nominees Are….
 
Performance by an actress in a supporting role
Amy Adams in "Doubt"
Penélope Cruz in "Vicky Cristina Barcelona"
Viola Davis in "Doubt"
Taraji P. Henson in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Marisa Tomei in "The Wrestler"
 
Wow…first category, and already two surprises.  More for me to dish about, I guess!  I'll discuss each in the order of likeliness to win the award, from lease likely to most likely.
 
Taraji P. Henson (thank God for the middle initial there…wouldn't want to confuse her with all of the other Taraji's Henson) is my vote for least likely in this category.  The caveat here is that Best Supporting Actress is always the hardest to predict.  Ms. Henson turned in a solid performance in a film whose awards show popularity is perplexing to most moviegoers.  I thought it was a decent film, many MANY others I have chatted with feel nothing for it.  Any way, I do hope to see more of her in the future.
 
Next up we have Amy Adams from "Doubt."  Again, a solid turn here, but nothing earth-shattering.  In an odd way, her turn as the innocent/naïve nun in the film is really not that different from, say, her innocent turn as the Princess in "Enchanted," or her naïve, Oscar-nominated role in "Junebug."  I'm looking forward to seeing her stretch her acting chops in the upcoming dark comedy "Sunshine Cleaning," followed hopefully by something that allows her to stretch her Minnesota Dinner Theater trained chops a little more.
 
From here it starts to get much tighter.  I'll give third place to one of my sentimental faves, Marisa Tomei.  SEE THIS MOVIE.  Ms. Tomei gives yet another brilliant performance in this role, as a stripper whose career is on the decline.  Much like the way Rourke infused his own life experiences into his role in the film (more on that later), it's hard not to imagine what it must have been like for Tomei to face the reality of aging in Hollywood as she spun her naked body around the pole (lots of booby shots in this one, and they're real!).  Unfortunately for her, the film is really Rourke's – her character just doesn't have enough of a story arc to garner her a second award.
 
Down to two, and somehow Penélope Cruz is still around?  How did that happen?  Seriously though...one can NEVER count out a supporting woman from a Woody Allen film (Mira Sorvino, anyone?).  I have to admit I have not seen this one yet, but the buzz is good on her performance.
 
Not good enough, however, to topple Viola Davis from "Doubt."  I'm even surprising myself for picking her here, as she will certainly lose votes to co-star Adams, not many have likely even seen the film yet, and she has the smallest role of all 5 women nominated.  That's right – only one scene, but what an incredible scene it is!  The raw emotions that she evokes while out-acting Amy Adams, Philip Seymour Hoffman AND La Streep will astound you.  In addition, this is a role that Oprah herself openly campaigned, but was turned down for due to the strength of Davis' screen test.  PLUS, she totally played Fantasia Barrino's mother in the made-for-TV "Life is Not a Fairytale:  The Fantasia Barrino Story," and the only acting award for that gem went to Kadeem Hardison (Dwaye Wayne from "A Different World") – the very balance of the world is in your hands, AMPAS.
 
Will win:  Viola Davis, "Doubt"
Should win:  I'm going with Marisa Tomei here….love her.
Should have been nominated:  There are some surprise omissions….Kate Winslet won the Golden Globe in this category for "The Reader," but she was more correctly nominated in the Best Actress category this time.  Another surprise was that Henson got the nomination over awards fav Cate Blanchett from the same film, though I did not care for Blanchett's role or performance at all.  Lastly, had "Rachel Getting Married" been a "bigger" film, we may have seen a nomination for Rosemarie DeWitt or Debra Winger in this category.  At least the old bag from "Titanic" didn't make any movies this year….no nomination for Gloria Stuart, who will turn 99 this year.  Yes, she's still with us and even making an unprecedented 11th consecutive appearance in my post-Nominations post!
 
Performance by an actor in a supporting role
Josh Brolin in "Milk"
Robert Downey Jr. in "Tropic Thunder"
Philip Seymour Hoffman in "Doubt"
Heath Ledger in "The Dark Knight"
Michael Shannon in "Revolutionary Road"
 
This one, as with last year's win for Javier Bardem, is by far the easiest to call.  In fact, the hardest part is handicapping the 4 eventual losers, but I'll give it a shot.
 
Michael Shannon is the single biggest surprise out of all of this year's acting nominations – the gasp in the crowd when his name was read was by far the loudest.  Almost entirely ignored by the other annual awards (Globes, SAGs, etc.), in a film that was almost entirely ignored in all other categories, co-starring three actors with profiles MUCH larger than his (DiCaprio, Winslet and Kathy Bates)…shocking indeed.  He won't win, and in 10 years someone will be looking back at the nominees and surely go "WHO?"
 
Onto four more accomplished actors…fourth place goes to everyone's favorite non-Chunk Goonie, Josh Brolin.  His nomination is likely a "do over" from last year, when he was inexplicably overlooked for "No Country for Old Men."  He's good in "Milk," though the role is a little too faux nuanced for my tastes.
 
Down to three, and I'll give third place to Philip Seymour Hoffman.  As usual, he is excellent – his performance in "Doubt" really made me understand a little more about the mentality of priests in the mid-50s, and how some priests got away with horrible improprieties while the powerless nuns and powerful church stood by.
 
Second place goes to Robert Downey Jr., for what was a truly courageous performance in the comedy "Tropic Thunder."  Virtually everything about this role is offensive – he appears in blackface for the majority of the film while spewing one offensive remark after another – and yet he still gets nominated for the highest honor in film?  It will be interesting to see what groups like NAACP have to say about the nomination – somehow, the role was more derided for his character's opinions on the mentally challenged than on the heavy make-up used for the role.
 
Speaking of heavy make-up, we have this year's inevitable (and extremely deserving) winner, Heath Ledger in "The Dark Knight."  Exactly one year ago, we learned of his tragic overdose and just started to learn about what an amazing swan song performance he gave as the Joker.  That Ledger could elevate a common "comic book movie baddie" role into what he did is amazing.  I truly believe that this award would be his even if he had not passed away, though some may attribute his win more to his untimely death than his virtuoso performance.  Side note – my cousin's cousin, John Caglione, Jr., is nominated for doing the make-up in the movie.  This could be his second Oscar, as he previous won for "Dick Tracy."  
 
Will and should win:  Heath Ledger 
Should have been nominated:  Some thought that James Franco might get the nod here for his role in "Milk," though I agree with Brolin's nomination.
 
Performance by an actress in a leading role
Anne Hathaway in "Rachel Getting Married"
Angelina Jolie in "Changeling"
Melissa Leo in "Frozen River"
Meryl Streep in "Doubt"
Kate Winslet in "The Reader"
 
Finally some surprises here, in what is always my favorite category!  None are total shockers, as the category is a virtual mirror of the SAG nominees (where Winslet was nominated for "Revolutionary Road" instead of "The Reader).  In fact, the SAG voters and those who vote for Acting nominations for the Oscars are pretty much the same, so maybe I shouldn't be surprised at all. 
 
And yet, Melissa Leo's nomination in "Frozen River" still comes as a shocker.  Yes, she has been racking up critical acclaim and even some other nominations (Independent Spirits comes to mind) for her performance in this extremely strong film (haven't seen it yet…will be renting it before the show, of course) since it came out early last year.  I guess it's just that this role went largely ignored, while other "small" roles have been more praised (see below).  Alas, she does not have a prayer here.
 
Also hopeless is Angelina Jolie in "The Changeling."  Another film I have not yet seen, though I just don't hear good things about it.  She seems to have a habit of taking showy roles in films that do not live up to the hype (see last year's "A Mighty Heart," for example).  Unfortunately, what seem to be excellent performances by her get overshadowed by these disappointing reviews.  She's lucky to have been nominated here.
 
In third place we have La Streep.  Did anyone "doubt" (hardee har har) this inevitable nomination as soon as she signed on to this film adaptation of the Tony Award winning play?  I personally would rather have seen Cherry Jones (the Tony Award Winner for the role) get her chance at bringing this to the big screen, though it was probably Streep's name that landed the all important funding that was needed to get it made at all.  I found her performance to be too much – not in an Al Pacino "HOO HAH!" kind of a way, mind you, but a little too much nonetheless.

Alas, it is really a two woman race.  Many early prognosticators think this may be Anne Hathaway's year for "Rachel Getting Married."  She's had an interesting year, what with her supporting role in "Get Smart," her dark turn in "Rachel…" and her current performance in "Bride Wars" – not to mention the scandal surrounding her money-stealing ex.  Look – she was good in this movie – not great, but good.  The film itself was good – again, not great, but good.  It's just NOT an Oscar winning role.  And, much like the timing of "Norbit" killed Eddie Murphy's chances of winning for "Dreamgirls" two years ago, I suspect that the critically bashed "Bride Wars" (12 % on Rotten Tomatoes, well behind "Paul Blart:  Mall Cop," "Beverly Hills Chihuahua," and "Hotel for Dogs") may take precious votes away from her.  Which all the more for….
 
KATE WINSLET!  That's right, perennial Oscar loser Kate Winslet will finally lose the tag of "Best Actress to never have won an Oscar" for her portrayal of a mysterious loner in "The Reader."  I am so glad that the Academy chose this role over her (perhaps more showy) turn in "Revolutionary Road," as this a role that we can look back on and really say, "Of COURSE that's what she won for" instead of "I guess this was a career award…"  See the movie, people (more on that later).  In the meantime, let's make up for her previous five losses, to such cinematic stalwarts as Mira Sorvino and Helen Hunt for goodness sake, and make sure that she wins this time around! 
 
Will and should win:  Duh.
Should have been nominated:  Aside from the aforementioned Winslet in "Revolutionary Road" snub, I was somewhat surprised that Kristin Scott Thomas was not nominated for the requisite foreign film nominee (she speaks in French) for "I've Loved You So Long," or perhaps Sally Hawkins for the requisite "quirky" nomination for "Happy Go Lucky."
 
Performance by an actor in a leading role
Richard Jenkins in "The Visitor"
Frank Langella in "Frost/Nixon"
Sean Penn in "Milk"
Brad Pitt in "The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
Mickey Rourke in "The Wrestler"
 
Much like the Best Actress category, this year's nominations for Best Actor are an exact replica of the SAG nominees.  So again, we'll call the surprises minor at best.
 
The least likely winner would be my personal second pick….Richard Jenkins in "The Visitor."  I was lucky enough to review this firm for Next Magazine, and it I EXACTLY the kind of movie that I love love love.  Jenkins (most famous has the deceased patriarch from "Six Feet Under") takes his first leading role (after decades of supporting turns) and knocks it out of the ballpark.  He plays a weary UCONN (go Huskies!) professor who visits his NY apartment after not venturing out of rural Storrs, CT for several years.  SEE THIS MOVIE.  It's out on DVD – you will love it to!
 
Unfortunately, Jenkins has about as much of a prayer as Frank Langella from "Frost/Nixon."  Those of you who are loyal readers know that I am just not a fan of portrayals of "real" people, so despite the fact that Langella seemingly turns it out as Nixon (haven't seen it yet), I am in general just not interested.  The movie has strong buzz, though I know of very few who have bothered to see it yet.  Perhaps it's Best Picture nomination will change that.
 
In the meantime, Brad Pitt is most likely to garner the third most votes for his role as the titular Benjamin Button.  Personally, I don't get it.  He barely acts at all in this movie…I don't write that to say that his performance was poor, rather that there was shockingly little for him to do in a three-hour movie that he starred in.  Very strange.
 
So we basically have a two-way race.  I'm giving second place to Sean Penn.  Again, I'm never as interested in those who play real people – I'm far more fascinated by seeing how someone can create a role from scratch.  Given that caveat, Penn really does melt right into this role that could have become an easy caricature but winds up being nothing short of brilliant.  His chances have suffered from an "early" release (pre-Thanksgiving, when most of the buzz doesn't start until mid-December), but the tides seem to be a changing.  Will it be enough?
 
Perhaps, but only if Mickey Rourke implodes over the next couple of weeks.  As long as he can keep his mouth shut (note to Mickey – lay VERY low for three weeks), his performance from "The Wrestler" will shine through.  It is my absolute fav performance of the year.  The manner in which he pours his personal struggles and experiences into the role is amazing.  I simply cannot think of a more soul-bearing performance in recent times, on par with Haing S. Ngor's winning performance from "The Killing Fields" in 1984.  Again, SEE THIS MOVIE.  In additional to two of my favorite performances, it is my favorite film of the year.
 
Will and should win:  Mickey Rourke
Should have been nominated:  Leonardo DiCaprio was definitely hurt by the lack of support for "Revolutionary Road;" I thought he was ok, but wouldn't personally substitute him for anyone above.  Many thought that Clint Eastwood might take a nomination in what just may be his last performance on the big screen in "Gran Torino."  That film was completely snubbed though.
 
Achievement in directing
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button," David Fincher
"Frost/Nixon," Ron Howard
"Milk," Gus Van Sant
"The Reader," Stephen Daldry
"Slumdog Millionaire," Danny Boyle
 
Best motion picture of the year
"The Curious Case of Benjamin Button"
"Frost/Nixon"
"Milk"
"The Reader"
"Slumdog Millionaire"
 
A couple of surprises here, indeed.  First of all, there is almost always one director whose film is not nominated, leaving one film without a nominated director.  That this year's films are an exact correlation is therefore a surprise – in fact, I can't remember the last time this happened.
 
Other than that, the films that were nominated all come to us with many Globe, Directors Guild, and Critics Association nominations between them.  With that said, I am still somewhat surprised to see "Frost/Nixon" on the list, so I'll give it fifth place.  It just has not had the buzz of other films that did not make the cut – I'm thinking "Revolutionary Road," "The Wrestler" and "Doubt" in particular.  I'll definitely catch it in the next month so that I can be a better judge, however I just don't see it beating any of the other four contenders.
 
Fourth place goes to "The Reader," though it was my 2nd fav of the year.  Again., it's a small movie that just not enough people have seen.  I say SEE IT people.  It is much more than it appears to be from the commercials that I have seen.
 
I'm giving third place to "Benjamin Button" – sure, it somehow made it's way to the top of many a Top Ten list, but how?  The movie is too long, there are many flaws in the story, and the acting is so-so.  It's as if everyone voted for it because they were supposed to, rather than because they actually liked it.  Must be how Daniel Day-Lewis won last year for that dreck of a performance in "There Will be Blood."
 
That leaves two, but I am sad to say that I just don't see "Milk" taking it.  In another year, perhaps this film would have taken off.  Personally, I find the timing of it's release very curious -  had it come out in October, it would have been the only "major" film out there and moviegoers around the nation would have flocked to it; had it been released later, perhaps it would have received the critical attention it deserved.  Alas, the Thanksgiving timing worked against it, and it just got too lost in the shuffle.
 
So that leaves this year's indie darling, "Slumdog Millionaire," as this year's Best Picture.  Get ready for the inevitable backlash, people.  Look, this is a very good film – my third fav, behind "The Wrestler" and "The Reader," just slightly ahead of "Milk."  It's been getting ALL of the attention lately, and was the Globes winner for Best Drama.  If you haven't seen it yet, I highly recommend that you do so.  I defy you to NOT like it.
 
Will win:  "Slumdog Millionaire"
Should win:  From what's nominated, I would probably go with "The Reader."
Should have been nominated:  As previously mentioned, "The Wrestler," "Doubt," and "Revolutionary Road" could be considered surprise snubs here.  Some thought that "WALL-E," which was actually one of the best reviewed films of the year, might get some attention here, though it will have to settle for what is an easy win in the Best Animated Film category.  Lastly, there was a lot of sentiment for "The Dark Knight," both for Best Film AND Best Director...alas, it will have to settle for Ledger's nomination plus the many technical nominations it received.
 
Before I end, there are a couple of more surprises to mention.  The lack of a nomination for Bruce Springstein in the Best Original Song category (for "The Wrestler") is one big surprise, leaving room for either Peter Gabriel from "WALL-E" OR one of two songs from "Slumdog."  No "Wallace & Gromit" nom in the Best Animated Short.  Ok - I'm grasping at straws here at this point...

 

So with that, I am signing off for now.  I'd love to hear from you all, so post your comments.  In the meantime, I'll report back in a month after the Feb. 22 show! 

 

Comments

[Stephanie]

Excellent review, bro. Though I have to say, I was surprised that you failed to compare Downey's performance with your own blackface Mr. T in sixth grade. You were equally hilarious, thanks to Dad.

[Jack]

It's true! My father sent me to school in full make-up as Mr. T for Halloween, though it was in 8th grade not 6th. How horribly embarassing!

[Ray-Duhr Fan]

I would like to hear what Ray-duhr has to say about this.

[Erica]

I've seen photographic evidence of this. Wow.