The Nominations Network

Hey everyone!  Welcome to another year of interesting film and a highly varied nominations pool.  What makes this post different from just about any other?  I give my "day of", instant opinions and reactions on who will win and who should win BEFORE Hollywood PR agencies/the Weinsteins kick it into overdrive to start telling people who they should vote for!

This year's nominations, announced this morning at 5:38.30 PST by Mo'Nique (I was hoping for Geena Davis...she's the BEST at announcing), certainly had some surprises mixed in with the expected slew of noms for "The King's Speech," "True Grit," and "The Fighter," and "The Social Network."  But I'm getting ahead of myself...let's start, as always, with Supporting Roles, Lead Roles, Best Director/Picture, and finally some bits and bobbins about some of the other nominations.

Performance by an Actress in a Supporting Role

• Amy Adams in “The Fighter”
• Helena Bonham Carter in “The King's Speech”
• Melissa Leo in “The Fighter”
• Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”
• Jacki Weaver in “Animal Kingdom”

A very interesting array of performances indeed!  Again, as always, we'll start with who I believe is least likely to win, and end with who I believe will be awarded the award.

Least likely (i.e., most lucky to be able to say "it's just nice to be nominated") has got to be little known/little seen Aussie, Jacki Weaver.  Yes, her performance was probably the most buzzed about for the first six months of the year..unfortunately, not many have seen the film even though it's been out for so damn long, those who have seen it indicate that it's ALL about her performance and that the rest of the film is "meh" at best, AND she's simply up against too many special ladies who the Academy is more likely to WANT to give an Oscar too.  Lo siento, Jacki.

From there, much like every pair of pants that Snooki wears, the race is actually shockingly tight.  Really - any of these women could legitimately win, which makes this perhaps the most exciting category in years!  I'm going with my girl Amy Adams for fourth place.  She does what the Academy loves the most - makes herself fat and ugly AND affects an accent - but the role just is not showy enough to beat out her fellow castmate, Melissa Leo.

Equally "un"-showy (for once) is Helena Bonham Carter in "The King's Speech."  A definite nominee for my personal favorite picture of the year, her role is just not quite big enough to substantiate the award.  Some may feel that her chances are bouyed by the "career award" sentiments (especially compared to her fellow nominees) but for what?  "Alice in Wonderland?"  "Planet of the Apes?"  [INSERT EVERY FREAKING TIM BURTON MOVIE FROM THE PAST 10 YEARS HERE?!].  I mean, her brilliant turn in "The Wings of the Dove" from 1997, when even I had a full head of hair, can only carry her so far.  I just need more from her than crazy hair and horrifically hilarious Red Carpet outfits to bequeath her an Academy Award.

That leaves us with just two...in second place, I'm going with Hailee Steinfeld from "True Grit."  This is the ONE out of ten Best Picture Nominees that I have not seen yet....guess what I'm doing this weekend!  Anyway, Steinfeld has been left mostly out in the cold this season, but her performance has been picking up MAJOR steam in the last four weeks.  Many feel that she SHOULD have been nominated in the Lead Actress category, as her role is equal to co-star Matt Damon and co-nominee Geoff Bridges.  Regardless, she has a good shot at taking this one if the incredibly positive buzz continues for the nest several weeks.

I am personally of the opinion that the buzz will die down, leading Melissa Leo to carry this category.  Ms. Leo is one of those success stories that Hollywood just loves - 80's soap actress turned career character actress, gets a big break in an indie called "Frozen River" that leads to a surprise Oscar Nomination, and then shortly follows that up with another excellent role.  Look - NO ONE plays trash quite like Melissa Leo does, and her turn in "The Fighter" may just be her trashiest, brashest role yet.  To say she's entirely believable as the matriarch in this family is, well, an understatement.

WILL WIN:  Melissa Leo

SHOULD WIN:  You know, I've gotta go with Adams here.  I love a ginge - what can I say?  Seriously though...I love watching performances like hers...like Julianne Moore in "The Kids Are All Right," she is the quiet, understated heart of the film despite not getting as much buzz.

SURPRISES:  Throughout this awards season, Barbara Hershey and Mila Kunis have been trading nominations, both for performances in "Black Swan."  Both were good in the film, though you just know the Academy was pulling for veteran Hershey to eek out a nomination in what many are seeing as a comeback film for her.  She has Steinfeld to blame for that one!

Performance by an Actor in a Supporting Role

• Christian Bale in “The Fighter”
• John Hawkes in “Winter's Bone”
• Jeremy Renner in “The Town”
• Mark Ruffalo in “The Kids Are All Right”
• Geoffrey Rush in “The King's Speech”

A couple of surprises here compared to the more populist Golden Globe nominees, but this list mirrors the SAG nominees in this category to a T.  Doesn't matter - AT BEST this is a two-man race at this point.

Least likely to win, i.e. "Who?!  In what?!" is John Hawkes in "Winter's Bone."  I'll say this about ten more times in this posting..."Winter's Bone" was hands-down the best American Film of the year.  The best part of this film, like previous "faves" of mine - think "District 9," "The Savages" and "Pan's Labyrinth" for starters - is that there's nothing "Oscar-y" about it.  And yet ALL of the acting was dead-on from top to bottom....and Hawkes was certainly no exception.  RENT THIS MOVIE NOW.  Unfortunately, the "who?  in what?" factor puts him ina  solid, distant 5th place.

Next up is Mark Ruffalo, whose last name my mother INSISTS on pronouncing as if he just got off the boat from Sicily (think ra-FAL-o instead of surname that rhymes with Buffalo), but I digress.  I LOVED him in this adorable little indie, but let's be honest here...he basically plays a version of his character from another oft-mentioned fave of mine, "You Can Count on Me," which makes me wonder if he's just playing a version of himself.  Regardless, the nomination is deserved but a win would not be.

That leaves us with three, and bottom of that pile would definitely be Jeremy Renner.  I actually believe that this nomination was more about carry over from his work in last year's "Hurt Locker" - I mean, he was good, but not THAT good.  Plus, he got the movie's only nomination (I guess Pete Postlethwaite didn't die early enough to garner a posthumous nomination).  Plus, someone else in this category has him beat for affecting a Boston accent in a much showier role.  No dice for Renner.

That leaves us with the aforementioned two-man race, but even with just two left it seems so clear who will win.  And it WON'T be Geoffrey Rush.  Look - I loved him in this movie...which I loved.  He is spot-on perfect in his role as King George VI's speech therapist.  He continues to turn it delightful performances in just about every movie he's in - comedies, dramas, period pieces...this guy is unstoppable.  Unfortunately, he's already won an award (Best Actor for "Shine") and the votes will go towards his screen mate, Colin Firth.

So that means that enfant terrible Christian Bale, king of the younger generations Method Actors, will definitely win for his performance in "The Fighter."  I mean, he just has everything going for him in this role.  Accent?  Check.  Drug addiction?  Check.  Overcoming drug addiction?  Check.  Lost massive amounts of weight?  Check.  Made himself ugly/showed thinning hair?  Check.  In one of the most nominated films of the year?  Check!  I WOULD suggest that I only thought he was ok, but have you ever heard how he lambasts anyone who gets in his way?  Let's just say the gifted actor has quite a temper...hmmm...it WOULD be entertaining to watch his expression/read his lips if this award slips away from him.  Alas, it won't.

WILL WIN:  Christian Bale

SHOULD WIN:  If I was voting, I'd go with John Hawkes...I mean, he has ALMOST as many "checks" as Christian Bale, albeit in a much smaller role...I'm begging you...give this movie a shot.

SURPRISES:  Andrew Garfield received his fair share of nominations throughout the season for his role in "Social Network."  Some even suggested that Justin Timberlake, playing a slightly more cocky version of himself in the same movie might have scored a nomination as well.  But it's really Postlethwaite that many wanted to see in here for his role as the Florist for "The Town."  And no, he most certainly was not that kind of florist in the event that you haven't seen that one yet

Performance by an Actress in a Leading Role

• Annette Bening in “The Kids Are All Right”
• Nicole Kidman in “Rabbit Hole”
• Jennifer Lawrence in “Winter's Bone”
• Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”
• Michelle Williams in “Blue Valentine”

Can you believe that yet another year is going by without an Academy Award for Julianne Moore?  Maybe that's why so many people are predicting that the world will end in 2012...

Least likely to take Oscar home for her performance would have to be slight suprise nominee Michelle Williams.  James and I caught this EXTREMELY depressing film a couple of weeks ago, and...well, what can I say?  Williams continues to devastate me on screen in a way that I thought only Julianne Moore could.  Unfortunately, like her role in last year's (non-nominated) "Wendy and Lucy," this poor thing continues to star in movies that are just really hard to watch.  I'm not suggesting that she go the Sandy Bullock route or anything, but it might behoove her to lighten up at least a little bit!

Equally difficult to watch/unseen was Nicole Kidman's performance (and newly moving forehead!) in "Rabbit Hole."  Also like Williams (who shared top billing and rave reviews with Ryan Gosling in "Blue Valentine"), ir twas interesting that the Academy nominated Kidman and not her equally brilliant co-star, Aaron Echkart.  Either way, this little film, based on a play for which Rojo Caliente's wife Cynthia Nixon won a Tony, just is not enough to carry Kidman to her second Oscar victory - no matter how many tears she cries.

Down to three, and it is (sadly) time to discuss virtual unknown Jennifer Lawrence and her role in "Winter's Bone."  She plays the unconventional matriarch of a hillbilly family in the wilds of Missouri who fiercely defends her family and their home from a wide array of shockingly evil predators.  I really loved this movie so much that I don't want to give anything else away about her role or the film itself.  Let's just say I am VERY excited to watch her career trajectory, and praying she doesn't take Reese Witherspoon/Meg Ryan romantic comedies to follow up her well-deserved nomination.

Runner-up has got to be proverbial Oscar runner-up, Annette Bening.  As in previous years, La Bening had this award virtually wrapped up all year long until someone else came along and stole it from her clutches.  Positives?  Well, at least the "someone" wasn't Hilary Swank, to whom she surely placed second behind TWICE before.  Honestly - and I mean this as an admittedly biased but somewhat knowledgeable source - I thought she was good but that Moore was better in this film.  Bening bening-fitted from the juicier role - she gets to be the temper tantrum-throwing, "wronged" half of the Moore/Bening partnership in the film...hence the Academy overlooking Moore. 

Unfortunately, Bening is going to have to settle AGAIN for being this closeto being able to say that she's Academy Award winner Annette Bening, because this award is ALL Portman's.  I mean, did you see her in "Black Swan?"  It's hard to not be amazed by her performance, regardless of what you think about her oeuvre or the film as a whole.  She's in virtually ever second of the film, and her story arc is perfect Oscar bait.  Hopefully, Portman will take some speech delivery courses between now and then - her Golden Globes speech was just weird and painful to watch AND listen to.  YouTube "Natalie Portman Laugh" and you'll know what I'm talking about.

WILL WIN and SHOULD WIN:  Julianne Moore!  Just kidding...I'm going with Portman here.

SURPRISES:  As previously mentioned, some though Hailee Steinfeld belonged here.  I had pipe dreams of Julianne Moore appearing in this category, but it would have just lead to another loss for her.  Otherwise, not much to be surprised by quite frankly.

Performance by an Actor in a Leading Role

• Javier Bardemin “Biutiful”
• Jeff Bridges in “True Grit”
• Jesse Eisenberg in “The Social Network”
• Colin Firth in “The King's Speech”
• James Franco in “127 Hours”

A surprise nominee in a poorly spelled, foreign film that virtually no one has seen?  Exciting!  One of the ceremony's co-hosts garnering his first nomination?  Yay!  For the first time in a LONG time, a Best Actor category to be excited about!

Let's start with Javier Bardem's nomination for "Biutiful."  Rumor has it that he can thank Julia Roberts for this one, who singlehandedly raised the profile of this film from nothing to a nomination.  I've read some reviews - both in Spain where they actually HAVE been talking about it and here - and while his performance has been praised the movie is considered just Ok.  Regardless, he won't be winning Oscar #2 this time around...

Neither will Jesse Eisenberg, who normally annoys the living crap out of me and was therefore PERFECTLY cast as Facebook creator/stealer/general slimeball Mark Zuckerberg.  A well-deserved nomination, in what is surely a top contender for Best Picture...unfortunately, he's too young and untested, and the film is more likely to sweep other high-end categories such as screenplay, direction, etc.  I'd really love to see him step outside of his comfort box and do something different going forward.

In third place is last year's winner in this category, Jeff Bridges.  Again, I'll admit to not having seen this one quite yet, but have only heard amazing things about his turn in this heavily nominated film.  Hollywood proved that they adored and respected him last year when he stole Oscar away from Colin Firth...it's not happening this year.

Runner-up status is therefore bestowed upon James Franco.  Just the cache of giving the award to one of the co-hosts alone lifts Franco's profile.  And for those who have seen his riveting performance in "127 Hours," it will be hard NOT to vote for him.  I'll admit that when I caught this film, I had major doubts that ANYONE could carry 90+ minutes with their arm stuck in a rock.  Not only did Franco succeed, he absolutely SOARED.

In any other year, this award would be his.  And yet, Colin Firth in "The King's Speech" is just about guaranteed to win.  Like Christian Bale before him, Firth's role just has too much going for it to lose this time around.  Plays royalty from England?  Check.  Has a physical default?  Check.  Works to overcome said physical default?  Check.  Lost last year and turned it OUT again this year?  Check!  I've really enjoyed him in, well, EVERYTHING - even stupid Bridget Jones' stupid Diary - so I'm very happy to say that he will win this one!

WILL and SHOULD WIN:  Colin Firth

SURPRISES:  Some thought Robery Duvall would be rewarded for his role in "Get Low," but the film and his role just didn't have enough drive at the end, allowing for Bardem's nomination.

Direction

• “Black Swan”Darren Aronofsky
• “The Fighter” David O. Russell
• “The King's Speech” Tom Hooper
• “The Social Network”David Fincher
• “True Grit” Joel Coen and Ethan Coen 

Best Picture 

• “Black Swan”
• “The Fighter”
• “Inception” 
• “The Kids Are All Right”
• “The King's Speech”
• “127 Hours”
• “The Social Network” 
• “Toy Story 3”
• “True Grit”
• “Winter's Bone"

Well, we can start by discounting the films from contention that don't have a corresponding nomination for director.  In order of LEAST likely to MOST likely from that list of nominees, that means no Best Picture Oscar for "Toy Story 3" (which will win for Best Animated Feature), "127 Hours," "Winter's Bone" (what I would have voted for), "The Kids Are All Right" or "Inception" (which should win director Christopher Nolan a much deserved and overdue writing award).

From there, I'd say fifth place would go to "Black Swan" - to me, it was almost more of a psychological horror film than a traditional drama, though Aronofsky will get his fair share of votes for Best Director.  Some day, he'll win.  Just not this time around.

Fourth place has got to be "True Grit," if only because it's a remake AND these guys just won two years ago.  Year after year they turn out film after nominated film, which leads me to believe that they will win another in the near future if they continue on their blistering pace. 

Third place goes to "The Fighter" - a good film about a subject Oscar just loves ("Raging Bull," "Rocky," "The Hurricane," etc.).  Interestingly, the film DIDN'T garner a nomination for the title role, played by Mark Wahlberg, but I digress.  The film has been picking up some steam of late, but I just don't see it overtaking the top two contenders.

Just two to go, and it's turning about to be a neck and neck race between "The King's Speech" and it's director, and "The Social Network."  Two weeks ago, post Golden Globes, I would have said that there was no way to stop "The Social Network" from winning this one.  Lately though - and by lately, I mean the last week or so - "The King's Speech" has been rising from a solid second place contender to winning some of the big ones.  I'm going unconventional here, and picking "King's Speech" for Best Picture but David Fincher for "The Social Network" for Best Director.

That's it for now, folks, though there were a couple of other surprises...aside from what I've already mentioned, I was REALLY surprised that Daft Punk was ignored for their work in "Tron: Legacy."  Look - the film was crap, but their score was AMAZING.  No "I Am Love" for Best Foreign Language film also took me by surprise.  The biggest shock though was that "Joan Rivers: A Piece of Work" didn't even make it to the final cut for Best Feature Documentary.  I caught this one last week, and just can't believe that it wasn't as highly regarded as it should have been.  Check it out for yourself!

That's all for now.  See you on February 28....this year, I have a reporter from the bleachers, as my good friend Amy Karwan will be a "Bleacher Creature" on the Red Carpet and has vowed to provide some live analysis of the dresses that most of us will only see on E!, People, and the Internet.  Until then....enjoy the show on February 27!